> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://fred-mcp-server.amorelli.tech/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Time Series Analysis

> Analyzing trends, patterns, and relationships in economic data

# Time Series Analysis

Learn how to analyze economic trends, identify patterns, and compare time series data using the FRED MCP Server.

## Trend Analysis

### Long-Term Trends

Analyze unemployment over decades:

```javascript theme={null}
{
  "series_id": "UNRATE",
  "observation_start": "1980-01-01",
  "observation_end": "2024-10-01"
}
```

**Key insights to look for:**

* Cyclical peaks and troughs
* Long-term structural changes
* Recovery patterns after recessions

### Growth Rates

Calculate year-over-year growth:

```javascript theme={null}
{
  "series_id": "GDP",
  "observation_start": "2010-Q1",
  "units": "pc1"  // Percent change from year ago
}
```

<Tabs>
  <Tab title="Annualized Growth">
    ```javascript theme={null}
    {
      "series_id": "GDPC1",
      "units": "pca"  // Percent change at annual rate
    }
    ```
  </Tab>

  <Tab title="Quarter-over-Quarter">
    ```javascript theme={null}
    {
      "series_id": "GDPC1",
      "units": "pch"  // Percent change from prior period
    }
    ```
  </Tab>

  <Tab title="Year-over-Year">
    ```javascript theme={null}
    {
      "series_id": "GDPC1",
      "units": "pc1"  // Percent change from year ago
    }
    ```
  </Tab>
</Tabs>

## Cyclical Analysis

### Business Cycles

Identify recession periods using unemployment:

```javascript theme={null}
{
  "series_id": "UNRATE",
  "observation_start": "2000-01-01"
}
```

Combine with recession indicator:

```javascript theme={null}
{
  "series_id": "USREC",  // NBER Recession Indicator
  "observation_start": "2000-01-01"
}
```

<Note>
  **USREC** series: Value of 1 indicates recession period, 0 indicates expansion
</Note>

### Leading Indicators

Track predictive indicators:

```javascript theme={null}
// Leading Economic Index
{
  "series_id": "USSLIND",
  "observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}

// Building Permits (leads housing)
{
  "series_id": "PERMIT",
  "observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}

// Initial Claims (leads employment)
{
  "series_id": "ICSA",
  "observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}
```

## Seasonal Patterns

### Comparing SA vs NSA Data

```javascript theme={null}
// Seasonally Adjusted
{
  "series_id": "UNRATE",  // SA version
  "observation_start": "2023-01-01"
}

// Not Seasonally Adjusted
{
  "series_id": "UNRATENSA",  // NSA version
  "observation_start": "2023-01-01"
}
```

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Seasonally Adjusted" icon="chart-line">
    Use for identifying underlying trends and business cycle turning points
  </Card>

  <Card title="Not Seasonally Adjusted" icon="calendar">
    Use for understanding actual seasonal hiring/firing patterns
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

### Seasonal Patterns

Retail sales show strong seasonality:

```javascript theme={null}
{
  "series_id": "RSXFSN",  // NSA retail sales
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
```

Expected patterns:

* **Q4 spike**: Holiday shopping season
* **Q1 dip**: Post-holiday slowdown
* **Summer**: Back-to-school season

## Correlation Analysis

### Related Series Comparison

Compare inflation measures:

```javascript theme={null}
// CPI
const cpi = {
  "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01",
  "units": "pc1"
};

// PCE
const pce = {
  "series_id": "PCEPI",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01",
  "units": "pc1"
};
```

### Leading-Lagging Relationships

<Steps>
  <Step title="Identify Leading Indicator">
    ```javascript theme={null}
    // Housing starts (leads GDP)
    { "series_id": "HOUST" }
    ```
  </Step>

  <Step title="Track Coincident Indicator">
    ```javascript theme={null}
    // Industrial production
    { "series_id": "INDPRO" }
    ```
  </Step>

  <Step title="Monitor Lagging Indicator">
    ```javascript theme={null}
    // Unemployment (lags recession end)
    { "series_id": "UNRATE" }
    ```
  </Step>
</Steps>

### Interest Rate Relationships

Yield curve analysis:

```javascript theme={null}
// 10-Year Treasury
const ten_year = {
  "series_id": "DGS10",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
};

// 2-Year Treasury
const two_year = {
  "series_id": "DGS2",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
};

// Pre-calculated spread
const spread = {
  "series_id": "T10Y2Y",  // 10Y - 2Y spread
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
};
```

<Warning>
  **Inverted Yield Curve** (negative spread) has historically preceded recessions
</Warning>

## Volatility Analysis

### Price Volatility

Measure inflation volatility:

```javascript theme={null}
{
  "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
  "observation_start": "2015-01-01",
  "units": "pch"  // Month-to-month changes
}
```

High volatility periods often indicate:

* Economic uncertainty
* Supply shocks
* Policy transitions

### Financial Market Volatility

VIX Index (market volatility):

```javascript theme={null}
{
  "series_id": "VIXCLS",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
```

## Structural Breaks

### Identifying Regime Changes

Look for significant structural changes:

```javascript theme={null}
// Labor force participation
{
  "series_id": "CIVPART",
  "observation_start": "1980-01-01"
}
```

Notable breaks:

* **2000**: Women's participation peak
* **2008**: Financial crisis impact
* **2020**: Pandemic shock

### Policy Changes

Federal Funds Rate regime shifts:

```javascript theme={null}
{
  "series_id": "DFF",
  "observation_start": "2000-01-01"
}
```

Regimes:

* **Pre-2008**: Normal monetary policy
* **2008-2015**: Zero lower bound
* **2015-2019**: Gradual normalization
* **2020-2022**: Emergency response
* **2022-present**: Aggressive tightening

## Smoothing and Filtering

### Moving Averages

Smooth noisy data using longer periods:

```javascript theme={null}
// Weekly initial claims (volatile)
{
  "series_id": "ICSA",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

// 4-week moving average (smoother)
{
  "series_id": "IC4WSA",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
```

### Continuous Claims vs Initial Claims

<Tabs>
  <Tab title="Initial Claims">
    ```javascript theme={null}
    // New unemployment insurance claims
    { "series_id": "ICSA" }
    ```

    More volatile, faster signal
  </Tab>

  <Tab title="Continuing Claims">
    ```javascript theme={null}
    // Ongoing unemployment insurance
    { "series_id": "CCSA" }
    ```

    Smoother, persistent signal
  </Tab>
</Tabs>

## Growth Decomposition

### GDP Components

Analyze which components drive growth:

```javascript theme={null}
// Total GDP
const gdp = { "series_id": "GDP" };

// Consumption (typically ~68%)
const consumption = { "series_id": "PCEC" };

// Investment (typically ~17%)
const investment = { "series_id": "GPDI" };

// Government (typically ~17%)
const government = { "series_id": "GCE" };

// Net Exports (often negative)
const net_exports = { "series_id": "NETEXP" };
```

### Inflation Decomposition

Core vs headline inflation:

```javascript theme={null}
// Headline CPI
{
  "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Core CPI (ex food & energy)
{
  "series_id": "CPILFESL",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Food CPI
{
  "series_id": "CPIUFDSL",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Energy CPI
{
  "series_id": "CPIENGSL",
  "units": "pc1"
}
```

## Real vs Nominal

### Inflation Adjustment

Compare nominal and real values:

```javascript theme={null}
// Nominal Wages
{
  "series_id": "CES0500000003",  // Avg hourly earnings
  "observation_start": "2010-01-01"
}

// Real Wages (inflation-adjusted)
{
  "series_id": "CES0500000030",  // Real avg hourly earnings
  "observation_start": "2010-01-01"
}
```

<Tip>
  Real values show actual purchasing power changes, while nominal values include inflation
</Tip>

## Advanced Patterns

### Phillips Curve

Inflation vs unemployment relationship:

```javascript theme={null}
// Unemployment Rate
const unemployment = {
  "series_id": "UNRATE",
  "observation_start": "2000-01-01"
};

// Core CPI Inflation
const inflation = {
  "series_id": "CPILFESL",
  "observation_start": "2000-01-01",
  "units": "pc1"
};
```

**Expected relationship:** Higher unemployment → Lower inflation

### Okun's Law

GDP growth vs unemployment changes:

```javascript theme={null}
// Real GDP Growth
const gdp_growth = {
  "series_id": "GDPC1",
  "units": "pca"
};

// Unemployment Rate
const unemployment = {
  "series_id": "UNRATE"
};
```

**Expected relationship:** 1% GDP growth above trend → \~0.5% unemployment decline

## Forecasting Indicators

### Nowcasting

Current quarter GDP estimates:

```javascript theme={null}
// GDPNow (Atlanta Fed nowcast)
{
  "series_id": "GDPNOW",
  "observation_start": "2024-Q3"
}
```

### Survey-Based Forecasts

```javascript theme={null}
// Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
{
  "series_id": "USPHCI",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

// Consumer Expectations
{
  "series_id": "UMCSENT1Y",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}
```

## Practical Analysis Workflows

### Recession Analysis

<Steps>
  <Step title="Identify Recession Periods">
    Use USREC to mark recessions
  </Step>

  <Step title="Track Key Indicators">
    * Unemployment (rises during recession)
    * GDP (declines during recession)
    * Retail sales (weakens)
  </Step>

  <Step title="Analyze Recovery">
    * Duration from peak to trough
    * Time to pre-recession levels
    * Shape of recovery (V, U, W, L)
  </Step>

  <Step title="Compare Across Recessions">
    * 2001 (Tech bubble)
    * 2008 (Financial crisis)
    * 2020 (Pandemic)
  </Step>
</Steps>

### Policy Impact Analysis

Federal Reserve rate changes:

```javascript theme={null}
// Fed Funds Rate
{
  "series_id": "DFF",
  "observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}

// Mortgage Rates (responds to policy)
{
  "series_id": "MORTGAGE30US",
  "observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}

// Housing Starts (affected by mortgage rates)
{
  "series_id": "HOUST",
  "observation_start": "2015-01-01"
}
```

## Visualization Best Practices

<AccordionGroup>
  <Accordion title="Time Period Selection">
    * **Short-term**: 1-2 years for recent trends
    * **Medium-term**: 5-10 years for cyclical patterns
    * **Long-term**: 20+ years for structural changes
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Frequency Matching">
    Align frequencies when comparing:

    * Daily: Interest rates, stock prices
    * Monthly: Most economic indicators
    * Quarterly: GDP and national accounts
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Scale Considerations">
    * Use same units for direct comparison
    * Index to common base for relative comparison
    * Use dual axes carefully (can be misleading)
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Transformation Choice">
    * **Levels**: Show absolute values
    * **Growth rates**: Show momentum
    * **Indexed**: Show relative performance
    * **Normalized**: Show deviations from average
  </Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>

## Next Steps

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Data Transformations" icon="calculator" href="/examples/data-transformations">
    Learn transformation techniques
  </Card>

  <Card title="Advanced Queries" icon="magnifying-glass-chart" href="/examples/advanced-queries">
    Complex search patterns
  </Card>

  <Card title="Economic Analysis" icon="chart-mixed" href="/use-cases/economic-analysis">
    Comprehensive analysis workflows
  </Card>

  <Card title="API Reference" icon="book" href="/api-reference/fred-get-series">
    Series retrieval documentation
  </Card>
</CardGroup>