Economic Analysis Use Case

Leverage FRED MCP Server for comprehensive economic analysis, from macroeconomic forecasting to sectoral performance evaluation.

Overview

Economic analysts use FRED data to:

Monitor current economic conditions
Analyze historical trends
Identify relationships between indicators
Support forecasting and projections
Evaluate policy impacts

Macroeconomic Analysis

Business Cycle Analysis

Track key indicators across the cycle:

Leading Indicators

// Building permits
{ "series_id": "PERMIT" }

// Initial jobless claims
{ "series_id": "ICSA" }

// Yield curve spread
{ "series_id": "T10Y2Y" }

// Consumer expectations
{ "series_id": "UMCSENT" }

Coincident Indicators

// GDP
{ "series_id": "GDP" }

// Employment
{ "series_id": "PAYEMS" }

// Industrial production
{ "series_id": "INDPRO" }

// Retail sales
{ "series_id": "RSXFS" }

Lagging Indicators

// Unemployment
{ "series_id": "UNRATE" }

// Unit labor costs
{ "series_id": "ULCNFB" }

// Consumer credit
{ "series_id": "TOTALSL" }

GDP Decomposition

Analyze sources of growth:

// Total GDP
const gdp = {
  "series_id": "GDP",
  "observation_start": "2020-Q1",
  "units": "pca"
};

// Components
const components = {
  consumption: "PCEC",      // Personal consumption (68%)
  investment: "GPDI",       // Gross private investment (17%)
  government: "GCE",        // Government spending (17%)
  net_exports: "NETEXP"     // Exports - Imports
};

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)Track component contributions to identify growth drivers

Inflation Analysis

Multiple Measures

Compare different inflation indicators:

Consumer Prices
Producer Prices
PCE Deflator
Import/Export Prices

// Headline CPI
{
  "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Core CPI (ex food & energy)
{
  "series_id": "CPILFESL",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Services CPI
{
  "series_id": "CUSR0000SAS",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Goods CPI
{
  "series_id": "CUUR0000SAC",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Headline PPI
{
  "series_id": "PPIACO",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Core PPI
{
  "series_id": "PPILFE",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// PCE Price Index (Fed's preferred)
{
  "series_id": "PCEPI",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Core PCE
{
  "series_id": "PCEPILFE",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Import prices
{
  "series_id": "IR",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Export prices
{
  "series_id": "IQ",
  "units": "pc1"
}

Inflation Expectations

Monitor forward-looking indicators:

// University of Michigan 1-year ahead
{
  "series_id": "MICH",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

// 5-year breakeven rate
{
  "series_id": "T5YIE",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

// 10-year breakeven rate
{
  "series_id": "T10YIE",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

Labor Market Analysis

Employment Dynamics

// Comprehensive labor market dashboard
const labor_dashboard = {
  // Headline indicators
  unemployment: "UNRATE",
  payrolls: "PAYEMS",
  participation: "CIVPART",

  // Broader measures
  u6_rate: "U6RATE",
  employment_ratio: "EMRATIO",
  part_time_economic: "LNS12032194",

  // Flows
  initial_claims: "ICSA",
  continuing_claims: "CCSA",
  job_openings: "JTSJOL",
  quits: "JTSQUL",

  // Wages
  avg_hourly_earnings: "CES0500000003",
  real_earnings: "CES0500000030",
  unit_labor_costs: "ULCNFB"
};

Sectoral Employment

Track employment by industry:

Manufacturing

{ "series_id": "MANEMP" }

Construction

{ "series_id": "USCONS" }

Retail Trade

{ "series_id": "USTRADE" }

Healthcare

{ "series_id": "CES6500000001" }

Professional Services

{ "series_id": "USPBS" }

Leisure & Hospitality

{ "series_id": "CES7000000001" }

Financial Conditions

Interest Rate Analysis

// Yield curve
const yield_curve = {
  one_month: "DGS1MO",
  three_month: "DGS3MO",
  six_month: "DGS6MO",
  one_year: "DGS1",
  two_year: "DGS2",
  five_year: "DGS5",
  ten_year: "DGS10",
  thirty_year: "DGS30"
};

// Spreads
const spreads = {
  ten_two: "T10Y2Y",
  ten_three_month: "T10Y3M",
  bbb_treasury: "BAMLC0A4CBBB"
};

Financial Stress Indicators

// St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
{
  "series_id": "STLFSI2",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

// TED Spread
{
  "series_id": "TEDRATE",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

// VIX (market volatility)
{
  "series_id": "VIXCLS",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

Sectoral Analysis

Housing Market

const housing_metrics = {
  // Supply
  starts: "HOUST",
  permits: "PERMIT",
  under_construction: "UNDCONTSA",

  // Demand
  existing_sales: "EXHOSLUSM495S",
  new_sales: "HSN1F",

  // Prices
  case_shiller: "CSUSHPISA",
  fhfa_index: "USSTHPI",
  median_price: "MSPUS",

  // Affordability
  mortgage_rate: "MORTGAGE30US",
  affordability_index: "FIXHAI"
};

Manufacturing Sector

// Production
{
  "series_id": "IPMAN",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01",
  "units": "pc1"
}

// Orders
{
  "series_id": "AMTMNO",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

// Capacity utilization
{
  "series_id": "MCU",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

// PMI
{
  "series_id": "MANEMP",
  "observation_start": "2020-01-01"
}

Regional Analysis

State Comparisons

// Compare unemployment across states
const states = ["CA", "TX", "NY", "FL", "IL"];

states.forEach(state => {
  fred_get_series({
    series_id: `${state}UR`,
    observation_start: "2020-01-01"
  });
});

// State GDP
states.forEach(state => {
  fred_get_series({
    series_id: `${state}NGSP`,
    observation_start: "2020-Q1"
  });
});

Metro Area Analysis

// Major metro unemployment rates
const metros = {
  nyc: "LAUMT364190",
  la: "LAUMT064910",
  chicago: "LAUMT121410",
  dallas: "LAUMT481910",
  houston: "LAUMT482610"
};

Recession Analysis

NBER Dating

// Official recession indicator
{
  "series_id": "USREC",
  "observation_start": "2000-01-01"
}

// Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
{
  "series_id": "SAHMREALTIME",
  "observation_start": "2000-01-01"
}

Recession Depth and Duration

Identify Peak

Find pre-recession highs in key indicators

Track Trough

Identify lowest points during recession

Measure Recovery

Calculate time to return to pre-recession levels

Compare Recessions

Analyze differences in depth, duration, and recovery shape

International Comparisons

Global Indicators

// OECD data
const global = {
  // Composite leading indicators
  us_cli: "USALOLITONOSTSAM",
  oecd_cli: "USALOLITONOSTSAM",

  // GDP
  g7_gdp: "NAEXKP01",
  china_gdp: "CHNNGDP",
  eu_gdp: "CLVMNACSCAB1GQEU272020",

  // Trade
  global_trade: "WLDXTIMVA"
};

Best Practices

Use Multiple Indicators

Don’t rely on single metrics. Cross-validate with complementary series.

Check Data Revisions

Economic data undergoes revisions. Use vintage data for historical analysis.

Understand Seasonal Patterns

Use SA data for trends, NSA for actual seasonal patterns.

Consider Lead Times

Account for reporting lags and indicator relationships.

Document Methodology

Record transformation choices and analysis assumptions.

Analysis Workflow

Define Question

Clearly state what you’re analyzing

Identify Indicators

Select relevant series for your analysis

Gather Data

Retrieve series with appropriate transformations

Analyze Trends

Look for patterns, correlations, and anomalies

Validate Findings

Cross-check with alternative indicators

Document Results

Record methodology and conclusions

Next Steps

Financial Research

Markets and asset analysis

Policy Analysis

Policy impact evaluation

Examples

Practical code examples

API Reference

Tool documentation

​Economic Analysis Use Case

​Overview

​Macroeconomic Analysis

​Business Cycle Analysis

​GDP Decomposition

​Inflation Analysis

​Multiple Measures

​Inflation Expectations

​Labor Market Analysis

​Employment Dynamics

​Sectoral Employment

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail Trade

Healthcare

Professional Services

Leisure & Hospitality

​Financial Conditions

​Interest Rate Analysis

​Financial Stress Indicators

​Sectoral Analysis

​Housing Market

​Manufacturing Sector

​Regional Analysis

​State Comparisons

​Metro Area Analysis

​Recession Analysis

​NBER Dating

​Recession Depth and Duration

​International Comparisons

​Global Indicators

​Best Practices

​Analysis Workflow

​Next Steps

Financial Research

Policy Analysis

Examples

API Reference

Economic Analysis Use Case

Overview

Macroeconomic Analysis

Business Cycle Analysis

GDP Decomposition

Inflation Analysis

Multiple Measures

Inflation Expectations

Labor Market Analysis

Employment Dynamics

Sectoral Employment

Financial Conditions

Interest Rate Analysis

Financial Stress Indicators

Sectoral Analysis

Housing Market

Manufacturing Sector

Regional Analysis

State Comparisons

Metro Area Analysis

Recession Analysis

NBER Dating

Recession Depth and Duration

International Comparisons

Global Indicators

Best Practices

Analysis Workflow

Next Steps